Full Scouting & Fit Report
Jadarian Price → Seattle Seahawks
Pick 32 · Round 1
1.The Prospect
Jadarian Price | RB | Notre Dame | 5-11, 203 lbs | 4.49s 40-yard dash (70th %ile)
A compact, vision-first running back who spent three years as the complementary piece behind Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame. That supporting role belies his production — Price was one of the most efficient runners in college football, posting a positive PPA in every season and averaging 6.0 YPC across 280 career carries. Pick 32 is the last selection of Round 1: first-round capital signals Seattle's confidence that he's the answer at RB, not a rotational piece.
College Production
| Season | Car | Rush Yds | YPC | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 47 | 272 | 5.8 | 3 | 5 | 65 | 1 | +0.283 |
| 2024 | 120 | 746 | 6.2 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 0 | +0.136 |
| 2025 | 113 | 674 | 6.0 | 11 | 6 | 87 | 2 | +0.206 |
| Career | 280 | 1,692 | 6.0 | 21 | 15 | 162 | 3 | — |
Combine & Athletic Profile
| Metric | Result | RB Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Height/Weight | 5-11 / 203 | — |
| 40-Yard Dash | 4.49s | 70th |
| Bench Press | 21 reps | 41st |
| Vertical Jump | 35" | 44th |
| Broad Jump | 124" | 64th |
| 3-Cone | DNR | — |
| Shuttle | DNR | — |
The athletic profile is adequate, not electric. The 4.49 forty is fast enough to get to the edge in an outside zone scheme, but not a home-run threat on tape speed alone. Broad jump (64th percentile) suggests solid lower-body explosion. The missing agility drills leave a question mark on lateral burst.
Strengths, weaknesses, scouting notes ↓
Strengths:
- Elite vision and one-cut ability — 6.0 career YPC behind a strong Notre Dame OL
- Consistent PPA across all three seasons, including +0.206 overall / +0.144 rush PPA as a junior
- Third-down efficiency: +1.151 PPA on 3rd down in 2024, +0.307 in 2025
- Passing-down PPA consistently above +0.48 — reliable in critical situations
Weaknesses:
- Limited college volume (280 career carries) — never the alpha back
- Minimal receiving production (15 career receptions). The 14.5 YPR in 2025 (6 rec, 87 yds) is noise on tiny sample
- 41st percentile bench press at 203 lbs — questions about durability at the NFL level
- No agility drill data to confirm the lateral quickness that shows on tape
2.The Destination: Seattle Seahawks
Seattle just won Super Bowl LX behind the NFL's 3rd-ranked scoring offense (28.4 PPG) and a defense that allowed just 15.1 PPG over the final 8 games. This is a defending champion adding a first-round running back to fill a genuine need — not a luxury pick, but a replacement for their Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, who departed to Kansas City (3yr/$43M). The Seahawks ran the ball more than any team in football (582 attempts, T-1st in NFL) and won a championship doing it.
2026 Seattle Seahawks
Coaching Staff
Mike Macdonald
HC (calls defense)
Won SB LX at age 38. Ravens DC tree.
Brian Fleury
OC / Play-caller
From 49ers (TE/run game coord). Shanahan tree. First-time play-caller.
Justin Outten
Run Game Coordinator
Promoted internally. Former Denver OC.
Thomas Hammock
RB Coach
From BAL. Northern Illinois HC for 7 years. Macdonald reunion hire.
Daniel Stern
Pass Game Strategist
From BAL. 10 seasons. Playbook development, scripting.
Quarterback
Sam Darnold
477 att, 4,048 yds, 25 TD / 14 INT, +5.24 CPOE, 6th in pass EPA
+74.6 EPA (6th). PA EPA at +0.375 (2nd in NFL). Prior relationship with Fleury from 2023 SF overlap.
Weapons
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR1
+0.914 PA EPA (46 PA tgts)
Cooper Kupp
WR2
78 non-PA targets
AJ Barner
TE1
30 catches, 4 TDs. Blocking-first.
Running Backs
Jadarian Price
Rd 1, Pick 32
Zach Charbonnet
ACL recovery (~Wk 12). 184 car, 730 yds, 12 TD in 2025
Emanuel Wilson
1yr/$2.1M from GB. 125 car, 496 yds, 4.0 YPC
George Holani
ERFA. 22 car, 73 yds. Pass-blocking specialist
Offensive Line — All 5 SB Starters Return
LT
Cross
Returns
LG
Zabel
Returns
C
Sundell
Returns
RG
Bradford
Returns
RT
Lucas
Returns
All five starters return. 25th in rush EPA (-0.047), 23rd in sack rate (5.1%) — better at pass protection than run blocking, but zone-blocking continuity matters more than raw EPA. No rookie RB walks into a more stable OL situation.
Offensive identity, Fleury philosophy, SEA vs SF scheme comparison ↓
Offensive Identity: Same Tree, Different Fruit
This is NOT generic Shanahan. The stat comparison with the tree's origin (SF) reveals a distinct identity:
Scheme Fingerprints: Seattle vs San Francisco
| Metric | SEA (Kubiak/Fleury) | SF (Shanahan) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Rate | 50.9% (31st) | 56.7% | SEA runs far more |
| Shotgun Rate | 46.5% (31st) | 54.4% (27th) | SEA more under-center |
| Play-Action Rate | 26.0% (10th) | 23.0% (24th) | SEA leans harder on PA |
| Play-Action EPA | +0.375 (2nd) | +0.095 (18th) | SEA's PA is 4x more effective |
| Motion Rate | 57.9% (13th) | 67.4% (2nd) | SF motions more; SEA is selective |
| Rush EPA | -0.047 (25th) | -0.023 (21st) | Neither has elite rush efficiency |
| Pass EPA | +0.133 (7th) | +0.125 (8th) | Both have strong passing |
The causal chain: Under-center alignment → run fake takes longer to define → LBs commit downhill → play-action devastates at +0.375 EPA. The run game doesn't need to be good — it needs to be credible. The 582 rush attempts buy that credibility, and the play-action harvests it.
Fleury Philosophy
Three pillars: tempo pressure (playing fast to force simplified defensive looks), structural pressure (formation conflicts), and physical pressure (violent run-off-the-ball attitude). Goal is to “maintain” Kubiak's offense while supplementing with 49ers concepts.
Fleury risk factor: SF's run game ranked 30th in YPC under his coordination in 2025. Beat reporters called it “vanilla and ineffective.” SI compared the hire to Philadelphia promoting Kevin Patullo — a “weak” choice for a Super Bowl champion.
3.Scheme Fit: Kubiak's Outside Zone
Seattle runs a Shanahan-derived outside zone system with a heavy under-center lean (75% of rush plays), complemented by pin-and-pull, split zone, and gap schemes. The defining feature isn't the run game itself (25th in EPA) — it's the play-action ecosystem it fuels. Everything is built to look identical pre-snap: wide zone → wide zone to screen → wide zone look to reverse boot deep shot. The run game is the setup. The boot flood is the kill shot.
| Price Trait | Scheme Need | Match |
|---|---|---|
| One-cut vision (6.0 YPC, positive PPA every year) | OZ demands single decisive cut: bounce/bang/bend | A |
| 3rd-down efficiency (+1.15 PPA 2024, +0.31 2025) | SEA runs on 3rd down at +0.104 EPA — scheme creates good situations | A |
| Low receiving usage needed | System only targeted Walker 12x on PA, 35x total | A |
| Run fake credibility | PA EPA at +0.375 depends on convincing fakes | A |
| 4.49 forty (70th percentile) | Must reach edge before DE sets on stretch plays | B+ |
| Under-center experience | 75% of rush plays from under center | B+ |
| 203 lbs / 41st percentile bench | Scheme asks for physical contact absorption | B- |
Personnel groupings, formation splits, down-by-down, 12 personnel deep dive ↓
Personnel Grouping Rush Efficiency (2025)
| Personnel | Plays | Avg Yds | EPA | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) | 189 | 5.3 | +0.056 | Best in NFL from 12 pers. 44.9% pass rate |
| 11 (1RB, 1TE, 3WR) | 149 | 4.4 | -0.042 | Standard personnel |
| 21 w/FB | 78 | 5.0 | -0.031 | Fullback lead blocks |
| 22 (1RB, 1FB, 2TE, 1WR) | 49 | 2.7 | -0.046 | Heavy — telegraphs run |
| 13 (1RB, 3TE, 1WR) | 37 | 2.6 | -0.270 | Least efficient |
12 personnel is the sweet spot — 5.3 YPC, only grouping with positive EPA. Forces defenses into base packages (3 LBs), creating speed-vs-size mismatches when Kubiak flips to pass. Price gets his best carries from 12 personnel looks. Fleury may push two-back personnel higher (SF ran 45% two-back vs SEA's 24%).
Run Game Formation Splits (2025)
| Formation | Plays | Avg Yds | EPA | Explosive Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under Center | 435 | 4.2 | -0.038 | 11.7% |
| Shotgun | 147 | 4.7 | -0.074 | 11.6% |
75% of rushes from under center. Identical explosive rates. Better EPA under center — the scheme design is more efficient from traditional alignments.
Run Game by Down (2025)
| Down | Runs | YPC | EPA | Explosive (10+ yds) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 303 | 4.58 | -0.055 | 40 (13.2%) |
| 2nd | 192 | 3.99 | -0.110 | 20 (10.4%) |
| 3rd | 81 | 4.27 | +0.104 | 8 (9.9%) |
Positive EPA on 3rd-down runs is a scheme design feature — they pick their spots. Price's college 3rd-down PPA maps directly to this usage.
Play-Action Target Distribution (2025)
| Receiver | PA Targets | PA EPA | Non-PA Targets | Non-PA EPA | PA Boost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 46 | +0.914 | 143 | +0.382 | +139% |
| AJ Barner | 25 | +0.390 | 50 | +0.500 | -22% |
| Cooper Kupp | 16 | +0.229 | 78 | +0.183 | +25% |
| Kenneth Walker | 12 | +0.585 | 35 | +0.242 | +142% |
| Zach Charbonnet | 6 | +0.328 | 18 | -0.072 | +556% |
Walker's 12 PA targets at +0.585 EPA — Price inherits this role. The RB releasing after the fake was highly effective when used. But it's only 12 targets in 20 games. The RB's primary contribution to the passing game is the fake itself, not catching passes.
4.The Depth Chart
2026 RB Room
| Player | Status | 2025 Stats | Contract | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadarian Price | Rookie | — | 1st-round pick | Lead early-down back |
| Zach Charbonnet | ACL (~Wk 12) | 184 car, 730 yds, 4.0 YPC (3.3 excl. SY), 12 TD | Yr 4, expiring 2027 | Committee partner / goal-line |
| Emanuel Wilson | Healthy | 125 car, 496 yds, 4.0 YPC, 3 TD (GB) | 1yr/$2.1M | Bridge short-yardage |
| George Holani | Healthy | 22 car, 73 yds, 3.3 YPC | ERFA | Depth / pass-blocking 3rd-down |
Charbonnet: The Key Figure
Charbonnet's split baselines tell the story of a between-the-tackles grinder, not an outside zone fit. His value was goal-line work (12 TD, 4 of 5 from 1-2 yards out) and pass protection — his 2025 role had narrowed to short-yardage specialist (4.0 YPC overall, 3.3 excluding short-yardage situations). He's never been a lead back — always split with Walker. Only caught 20 passes all year (24 targets, 144 yards). ACL surgery was late February, pushing recovery to approximately Week 12.
Charbonnet Splits (2025)
| Split | Carries | YPC | EPA | EPA Pctile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-man box | 89 | 4.5 | -0.020 | 45th |
| 7-man box | 71 | 3.8 | -0.009 | 57th |
| 8+ box | 24 | 1.8 | -0.114 | 43rd |
| 1-back pers | 113 | 4.5 | +0.053 | 66th |
| 2-back pers | 66 | 3.5 | -0.089 | 42nd |
The Walker/Charbonnet Template
The 2025 split evolved from 50/50 to Walker-dominant: Walker ended at 44% rush share vs Charbonnet's 37%, taking early-down, third-down, AND goal-line work by season's end. The template for Price: start as lead early-down back, absorb more as production warrants. If Price produces like Walker did, he takes the three-down role.
Walker weekly log, Wilson profile, path to volume scenarios ↓
Walker's Weekly Log (2025) — The Volume Blueprint
| Phase | Avg Carries | Avg Rush Yds | Avg Targets | Avg PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-7 (split) | 13.6 | 61.4 | 1.3 | 10.7 |
| Weeks 9-18 (lead) | 13.3 | 62.3 | 2.8 | 11.6 |
| Playoffs (Wks 20-22) | 21.7 | 104.3 | 3.7 | 24.9 |
Walker averaged only 13-14 carries even as the lead back in the regular season. The committee structure is baked into this system. The playoff spike to 21+ carries shows the ceiling when the team goes run-heavy.
Emanuel Wilson Profile
Pure power runner (5-10, 226 lbs). GM Schneider called him “a 230-pound guy with great feet” and “a heavy runner.” 76.8% yards-after-contact rate, 73.9 PFF rushing grade. Only 30 career receptions in 3 years. Profiles as a Charbonnet replacement (power/goal-line), not a Walker replacement (explosive/OZ).
Wilson Splits (2025, Green Bay)
| Split | Carries | YPC | EPA | EPA Pctile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-man box | 76 | 4.4 | -0.096 | 32nd |
| 7-man box | 34 | 3.3 | +0.056 | 66th |
| 1-back pers | 98 | 3.9 | -0.078 | 37th |
| 2-back pers | 26 | 4.6 | +0.054 | 66th |
Path to Volume
- Most likely (Wks 1-11): Price is the lead early-down back from Day 1. Wilson handles short-yardage and goal-line. 13-17 carries and 1-3 targets per game.
- Most likely (Wks 12+): Charbonnet returns from ACL. Committee forms mirroring Walker/Charbonnet 2025. Price takes the Walker role (explosive, early-down, 3rd-down), Charbonnet takes his old role (goal-line, pass protection).
- Ceiling: Price dominates even after Charbonnet returns — like Walker did by mid-2025. Charbonnet coming off ACL may not be the same player.
- Floor: Price struggles, Wilson takes early-down work by Week 4, and the backfield becomes a three-way committee post-Charbonnet.
5.Year 1 Comps
RBs drafted in rounds 1-2 over the last 5 years — rookie season outcomes.
| Player | Pick | Team Quality | Rookie PPR | RB Finish | Committee? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 1.8 ('23) | Good (ATL) | 246.3 | RB7 | No — bellcow |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1.12 ('23) | Great (DET 12-5) | 242.1 | RB8 | Yes (w/ Montgomery) |
| Ashton Jeanty | ~1.10 ('25) | Bad (LV) | 245.1 | RB10 | No — volume play |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2.41 ('22) | Good (SEA 9-8) | 202.5 | RB18 | Partial (4 wks behind Penny) |
| Breece Hall | 2.36 ('22) | Bad (NYJ 7-10) | 115.1 | RB42 | ACL (7 games only) |
The same-building comp (Walker 2022) is the floor model. Same franchise, same scheme family, similar draft capital (late 1st vs 2nd round). Walker arrived behind Rashaad Penny, inherited the job when Penny got hurt Week 5, and finished RB18 with 202.5 PPR. Price's path mirrors this — he's likely the guy from Week 1 but may start slowly in a committee with Wilson before asserting dominance.
Gibbs (RB8) is the ceiling comp — but only if the receiving game develops (Gibbs caught 52 balls as a rookie vs Price's 15 career college receptions). Jeanty (RB10) is the “bad offense” warning — he finished RB10 on volume alone (266 carries) but at 3.67 YPC. Seattle's offense is dramatically better, so Price should be more efficient on fewer touches. The receiving work is what separates RB8 finishes from RB18 finishes.
Comp pattern analysis ↓
What Helps and What Hurts
| Factor | Helps Price | Hurts Price |
|---|---|---|
| Draft capital (1st round) | Higher than Walker (2nd), Irving (4th) | Doesn't guarantee volume |
| Team quality (SB champs) | Positive game scripts, sustained drives | Less garbage-time volume |
| Scheme (Shanahan OZ) | Produced RB18+ in every comp | 25th rush EPA — volume, not efficiency |
| Committee structure | Baked in post-Week 12 | Caps ceiling at ~RB15 in committee weeks |
| Receiving upside | System doesn't ask for 50+ catches | Caps PPR ceiling vs Gibbs/Irving comps |
| Clear path to lead role | 11 weeks as RB1 before committee | Wilson could steal early work |
The realistic outcome range is RB16-24 in PPR, anchored by Walker's RB18 rookie year in the same building as the floor comp, Gibbs's RB10 as the ceiling comp (requires receiving breakout), and Irving's RB13 as the scheme comp.
How do highly-drafted rookie RBs actually perform?
3 out of 4 healthy 1st-round RBs since 2021 finished RB9 or better — but none on a bad offense cracked the top 5. Walker (RB18 as a rookie in this same building) is the most direct comp for what Price could produce in year one. At Price's projected ADP range, the volume floor alone may justify the selection.
Read full report: Highly-Drafted Rookie RBs — Do They Beat ADP? →6.Fit Assessment
Why It Works
| Factor | Evidence | Match |
|---|---|---|
| Scheme alignment | 6.0 YPC explosive runner in an outside-zone-first system. OZ rewards patience + burst — Price's exact skillset | Excellent |
| Path clarity | Walker gone (KC), Charbonnet out until Wk 12, only Wilson ($2.1M journeyman) as competition | Excellent |
| OL continuity | All 5 SB starters return; no rookie RB walks into a more stable OL situation | Excellent |
| Play-action ecosystem | Darnold's PA EPA was 2nd in NFL (+0.375), pulling defenders out of boxes. Price runs behind play-fakes, not into stacked fronts | Excellent |
| 12-personnel fit | SEA's most efficient rushing grouping (5.3 YPC, +0.056 EPA). Price as the one-back in 2TE sets is the base case | Excellent |
| New RB coach | Thomas Hammock (Ravens) is a development hire, not a system loyalist to a specific back | Good |
Why It Might Not
| Concern | Context | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| 15 career college receptions | Kubiak targeted Walker only 1.8x/game, but Fleury's SF system used RBs more in the pass game. If Fleury increases RB targets, Price may not be trusted | Medium-High |
| 203 lbs in a physical system | Kubiak used 21/22 personnel 17%+ of plays. Fullback/2-back sets with 203-lb Price may not hold up in pass protection or between the tackles | Medium |
| Charbonnet returns ~Wk 12 | ACL surgery late February. Expected back ~Wk 12, will reclaim goal-line/short-yardage work, capping Price's TD upside in fantasy playoff stretch | Medium |
| First-time playcaller in Fleury | Fleury has never called plays at any level. If offense regresses, the run game volume that sustained Walker's fantasy value may decline | Low-Medium |
| Never exceeded 120 carries | Price was in a timeshare at Notre Dame. Durability at 200+ NFL carries is completely unknown | Medium |
7.Fantasy Projection
Role Projection
| Phase | Weeks | Projected Role | Per-Game Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Charbonnet | 1-11 | Lead back with Wilson spelling | 14-17 carries, 1-3 targets |
| Post-Charbonnet | 12-18 | Lead back in committee | 12-14 carries, 1-2 targets |
Season Line Projection
| Stat | Projection |
|---|---|
| Games | 17 |
| Carries | 160-240 |
| Rush Yards | 700-1,150 |
| Rush TD | 4-9 |
| Receptions | 12-35 |
| Rec Yards | 75-250 |
| Rec TD | 0-2 |
| PPR Points | 140-260 |
Range of Outcomes
| Scenario | Season Line | PPR Finish | What Happens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceiling | 240/1,150/9 + 35/250/2 | RB10-12 | Seizes job, Charb recovery slow, catches 30+ passes. The Gibbs trajectory. |
| Likely | 205/950/7 + 20/140/1 | RB16-20 | Lead back Wks 1-11, committee after Charb returns. Walker-rookie trajectory. |
| Floor | 160/700/4 + 12/75/0 | RB28-32 | Struggles at 203 lbs, Wilson earns bigger share, or soft-tissue injury mid-season |
Redraft ADP Guidance
- Avoid above: ADP 24 — paying for the Gibbs ceiling without the receiving profile. The receiving question prevents him from being a true Round 2 target.
- Buy zone: ADP 30-40 (late 3rd/early 4th round) — path to volume is cleaner than Henderson's (who shares with Stevenson), offense is dramatically better than Skattebo's or Harvey's, and the SB-winning OL returns intact. Should settle in the low-to-mid 30s.
- Steal below: ADP 45 — the market is overweighting the Charbonnet return. Charbonnet has never been a bellcow, is coming off a late-February ACL surgery, and Price has first-round draft capital.
The sweet spot is ADP 30-40 — you're buying the volume floor of a Shanahan outside zone lead back with the SB-winning OL intact, at a price that doesn't require the receiving upside or full-season bellcow role to hit.
Dynasty Value
Strong buy. Price has 1st-round draft capital on a Super Bowl champion running the ball more than anyone in football, with a Shanahan-tree scheme protected by multiple coaches with direct lineage to its roots. Charbonnet is on an expiring rookie deal (2027 UFA) and coming off an ACL — if Price performs, the backfield is his outright by Year 2. The OL continuity, QB competence, and scheme stability make this one of the best landing spots for a rookie RB in this class.
The dynasty risk is concentrated in one question: was Price a complementary college back because that's who he is, or because Jeremiyah Love was ahead of him? The 6.0 career YPC and consistent PPA suggest talent, not limitation. The 1st-round capital says the organization agrees.
8.Bottom Line
This is a strong fit with a late-season committee asterisk. The vision-to-scheme mapping is the headline — Price's one-cut decisiveness is exactly what outside zone demands, and he gets the best OL continuity in the league behind a blocking unit that spent all of 2025 learning this exact scheme. The volume floor is massive: even if Price is merely adequate, the league's run-heaviest offense generates 550+ carries, and first-round capital secures him the plurality.
The system's value isn't the run game itself (25th in EPA) — it's the play-action ecosystem the run game fuels (+0.375 EPA, 2nd in NFL). Price doesn't need to be a great runner. He needs to be a credible one. The 582 carries establish credibility, the boot flood harvests it, and everyone eats.
The key variables: Charbonnet's Week 12 return (which creates a fantasy-playoff committee), Fleury's competence as a first-time play-caller (which could degrade the play-action machine), and whether Price's 203-lb frame can absorb a 225+ carry NFL workload. The coaching staff depth — Outten protecting the run game, Hammock with direct Gary Kubiak lineage — is the hedge against the Fleury risk. If all three variables break right, Price mirrors Walker's rookie trajectory and finishes as a top-15 RB. If one or two break wrong, the volume floor still anchors an RB20-ish outcome. The floor is useful, the ceiling is a league-winner, and the 2027 dynasty outlook is excellent.