Full Scouting & Fit Report
Jeremiyah Love → Arizona Cardinals
1.The Prospect
Jeremiyah Love | RB | Notre Dame | 6'0", 214 lbs | 4.36s 40-yard dash (97.6th %ile)
Daniel Jeremiah's #2 overall prospect. Consensus top-5 pick and the first RB taken in the top 5 since Saquon Barkley (#2, 2018). Doak Walker Award winner and unanimous All-American. Comparable prospect grades to Bijan Robinson (9.0 in 2023). NFL comp: Darren McFadden (2008, #4 overall).
College Production
| Season | Car | Rush Yds | YPC | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | YPR | Rec TD | Scrimmage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 71 | 385 | 5.4 | 1 | 8 | 77 | 9.6 | 1 | 462 |
| 2024 | 163 | 1,125 | 6.9 | 17 | 28 | 237 | 8.5 | 2 | 1,362 |
| 2025 | 199 | 1,372 | 6.9 | 18 | 27 | 280 | 10.4 | 3 | 1,652 |
| Total | 433 | 2,882 | 6.7 | 36 | 63 | 594 | 9.4 | 6 | 3,476 |
Efficiency Profile (PPA)
| Season | Overall | Rush | Receiving | Standard Downs | Passing Downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0.127 | 0.060 | 0.714 | 0.040 | 0.522 |
| 2024 | 0.294 | 0.293 | 0.298 | 0.309 | 0.227 |
| 2025 | 0.218 | 0.155 | 0.584 | 0.140 | 0.452 |
- Usage rate climbed from 9.7% to 19.2% to 29.2%. Pass usage tripled from 2.2% to 9.9%.
- Passing-down PPA of 0.452 in his final season signals a money-down performer.
- 90.0+ PFF grade in each of his final two seasons.
Combine profile, scouting report ↓
Combine & Athletic Profile
| Metric | Result | Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| 40-yard dash | 4.36s | 97.6th |
| Weight | 214 lbs | — |
| Vertical | DNP | — |
| Broad Jump | DNP | — |
| Cone / Shuttle | DNP | — |
Fastest RB with a 90+ NGS production score at the combine over the last 10 years. One of only 8 RBs over 210 lbs to run sub-4.36 since 2003. Did not participate in vertical, broad jump, cone, or shuttle — limited agility data is a mild evaluator concern.
Scouting Summary
Strengths:
- Rare burst and contact balance — home-run threat on every touch
- Top 5 nationally in 15+ yard runs and breakaway rate
- Strong pass protector: squares up blitzers, rarely loses ground
- Doak Walker Award winner, unanimous All-American
- 90.0+ PFF grade in each of his final two seasons
Concerns:
- Leaner frame (214 lbs) raises durability questions for bellcow NFL workload
- Occasionally lacks patience between the tackles — eager to bounce outside
- Not the quickest in short-area cut-back in zone
- Benefitted from a strong Notre Dame offensive line
2.The Destination: Arizona Cardinals
Arizona went 8-9 in 2025 with a 28th-ranked rush offense by EPA while throwing at the highest rate in the NFL. The run game was broken. The offseason brought a new offensive coordinator in Mike LaFleur and significant OL investment. Love is the centerpiece of the rebuild on the ground.
2026 Arizona Cardinals
Coaching Staff
Mike LaFleur
OC / Play-caller
Hired Feb 2026. 5-year deal. Shanahan/McVay tree.
Jonathan Gannon
Head Coach
Entering Year 3
Drew Petzing
Previous OC
Departed
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett
14 games, 485 att, 3,366 yds (14th), 23 TD, 8 INT, -3.22 EPA (46th), +1.64 CPOE
Weapons
Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR1 / X
2024 #4 overall pick
Trey McBride
TE1
Top-5 TE in receiving
Michael Wilson
WR2
Complementary piece
Running Backs
Tyler Allgeier
$12.25M/2yr, $8M gtd
Bam Knight
Re-signed, 1yr deal
Trey Benson
4 games in 2025
Offensive Line
LT
P. Johnson Jr.
—
LG
Seumalo
New starter
C
Froholdt
—
RG
Adams
—
RT
Wilkinson
New starter
Seumalo is the marquee addition — PFF 78.5 (4th among guards), zero penalties, 3 sacks allowed. Wilkinson is an upgrade at RT. Interior remains a work in progress.
Mike LaFleur's System
LaFleur runs a Shanahan outside zone / McVay play-action hybrid. He began under Kyle Shanahan in Cleveland and Atlanta, served as San Francisco's passing game coordinator (2017-2020), then became the Rams OC (2023-2025) under McVay. He calls plays directly — OC Brett Hackett does not.
LaFleur Profile
| Trait | Data |
|---|---|
| Scheme family | Shanahan outside zone / McVay play-action |
| Rams offense (2025) | 1st in scoring (30.5 ppg), 1st in total yards (394.6 ypg) |
| RB usage (Rams 2025) | Kyren Williams: 80.7% of RB carries |
| TE philosophy | Led NFL in 3-TE packages; adapts to personnel |
| Prior play-calling | Jets OC 2021-22: ranked 32nd and 29th in scoring |
Critical note: LaFleur's independent play-calling sample is just the 2021-22 Jets (bottom-5 offense both years). His Rams success was under McVay's play-calling. The play-calling track record is unproven.
Kyren Williams usage under LaFleur, ARI offensive metrics ↓
Kyren Williams Usage Under LaFleur (Rams)
| Season | Car | Rush Yds | YPC | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 228 | 1,144 | 5.0 | 12 | 32 | 206 | 3 | 255.0 |
| 2024 | 316 | 1,299 | 4.1 | 14 | 34 | 182 | 2 | 272.1 |
| 2025 | 259 | 1,252 | 4.8 | 10 | 36 | 281 | 3 | 263.3 |
LaFleur gave Williams 228-316 carries per year and 1,100-1,300 yards each season. Usage trended away from pure bellcow late in 2025 (81.5% down to 63-69% of RB carries).
Cardinals 2025 Offensive Metrics
| Metric | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Pass EPA/play | +0.002 | 15th |
| Rush EPA/play | -0.059 | 28th |
| Pass Rate | 66.1% | 1st (highest) |
| Shotgun Rate | 71.4% | 12th |
| Motion Rate | 43.9% | 30th |
| Play-Action Rate | 25.9% | 11th |
| RPO Rate | 2.5% | 26th |
| Avg Defenders in Box | 6.1 | — |
Arizona ran the ball worse than all but 4 teams (28th rush EPA) while throwing at the highest rate in the NFL. The run game was broken — that is why they drafted Love.
3.Scheme Fit: LaFleur's System
LaFleur is installing a Shanahan outside zone / McVay play-action system in Arizona. The scheme demands a back who can press the edge on stretch runs, contribute as a receiver, and provide home-run ability off play-action. Love's trait profile maps to these requirements at an elite level — with one notable concern.
| Love Trait | LaFleur Scheme Need | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 4.36 speed | Outside zone stretch — needs backs who can press the edge | Elite |
| Pass-catching (63 rec, 0.584 rec PPA) | Shanahan systems feature RB in pass game; Williams had 36 rec in 2025 | Elite |
| Breakaway rate (top-5 nationally) | LaFleur's Rams ran play-action at high rate; needs home-run threat | Elite |
| Pass protection ability | Brissett needs a back who can stay in on 3rd down | Elite |
| Patience concerns | Outside zone requires reading the cutback lane | Moderate concern |
| Allgeier's zone running (82.2 PFF OZ) | LaFleur's Rams ran outside zone 4x more than Petzing's Cardinals | Elite complement |
Formation splits, personnel efficiency, box counts ↓
Formation Splits (ARI 2025 Runs)
| Formation | Plays | Avg Yds | EPA/play | Explosive Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun | 175 | 4.7 | +0.033 | 12.0% |
| Under Center | 189 | 4.0 | -0.145 | 7.4% |
Arizona ran significantly better from shotgun (+0.033 EPA, 12.0% explosive rate) than under center (-0.145 EPA, 7.4% explosive rate). Love's speed amplifies the shotgun advantage.
Personnel Grouping Efficiency (ARI Runs)
| Personnel | Plays | Avg Yds | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 (1RB, 1TE, 3WR) | 95 | 5.1 | +0.071 |
| 12 (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) | 66 | 3.7 | -0.096 |
11 personnel produced +0.071 EPA and 5.1 avg yards. LaFleur's tendency to adapt to personnel could see more 11 sets with Love's receiving ability as a weapon.
Box Count Splits
| Box | Plays | Avg Yds | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Light (6 or fewer) | 253 | 4.7 | -0.011 |
| Standard (7) | 93 | 3.4 | -0.072 |
| Stacked (8+) | 18 | 4.7 | -0.670 |
Arizona faced light boxes on 69% of runs. Love inherits favorable box counts — defenses respected the pass enough to keep safeties back. His 4.36 speed should further discourage stacked boxes.
4.The Depth Chart
Tyler Allgeier: The Elephant in the Room
Allgeier was signed to be the RB1 before this draft pick. His 2yr/$12.25M contract with $8M guaranteed is starter money, and his profile is a near-perfect fit for LaFleur's outside zone system. He has zero fumbles on 676 career carries.
Tyler Allgeier Profile
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Contract | 2yr/$12.25M, $8M guaranteed, $5.5M signing bonus |
| 2025 (ATL) | 143 car, 514 yds, 8 TD, 3.6 YPC |
| Career | 676 car, 2,876 yds, 4.3 YPC, 18 TD |
| PFF Rush Grade | 91.2 (7th among all RBs, 2022-2024) |
| Outside Zone PFF | 82.2 (6th among RBs) |
| Zone Rushing | 886 yds on zone runs (2nd in NFL), 42 conversions (1st) |
| Missed Tackles Forced | 30.1% (4th since 2022) |
| Fumbles | Zero on 676 career carries |
| Receiving | 88.7% catch rate (34/40), not a route-runner |
Allgeier vs. Love
| Dimension | Allgeier | Love |
|---|---|---|
| Speed (40) | 4.60 (46th pctile) | 4.36 (97.6th pctile) |
| Burst Score | 36th percentile | Elite breakaway rate |
| Receiving | 15.3 rec/year, not dynamic | 63 college rec, 0.584 PPA |
| Big-play ability | 4.3 career YPC | Top-5 breakaway rate nationally |
| Zone running | Elite (82.2 PFF) | Unknown at NFL level |
| Pass protection | Adequate | Strong per scouts |
| Durability | Iron man (0 fumbles, 1 missed game) | Frame concerns at 214 lbs |
Projected 2026 Split: Love/Allgeier Tandem
| Scenario | Love Role | Allgeier Role |
|---|---|---|
| Most Likely | Lead back, all passing downs, 60-65% of snaps | Early-down complement, goal-line, 30-35% of snaps |
| Ceiling | True bellcow, 70%+ snaps | Mop-up, short yardage only |
| Risk | Splits 50/50 early if Love struggles between tackles | Gets 40%+ if LaFleur mirrors late-2025 Rams trend |
Other incumbents, 2025 Cardinals RB room ↓
2025 Cardinals RB Room
| Player | Snaps | Car | Rush Yds | YPC | Rush EPA Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 393 | 92 | 333 | 3.6 | 101st (now with Titans) |
| Bam Knight | 283 | 82 | 269 | 3.3 | 127th (re-signed, 1yr) |
| Emari Demercado | 196 | 44 | 312 | 7.1 | 102nd |
| Trey Benson | 123 | 29 | 160 | 5.5 | 39th (4 games only) |
| James Conner | 93 | 32 | 95 | 3.0 | 75th (age 31, foot surgery) |
Carter is gone (Titans). Conner is 31 with foot surgery. Demercado and Benson are depth pieces. No incumbent carries meaningful draft capital above round 3 — Love's path to the lead role is clear from a roster standpoint. The only real competition is Allgeier, who occupies the complementary role.
5.Year 1 Comps
RBs drafted in rounds 1-2 over the last 5 years — rookie season outcomes.
| Player | Pick | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | PPR Pts | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | R1P8 ('23) | 976 | 4 | 58 | 487 | 246.3 | RB9 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | R1P12 ('23) | 945 | 10 | 52 | 316 | 242.1 | RB8 |
| Ashton Jeanty | R1 ('25) | 975 | 5 | 55 | 346 | 245.1 | RB11 |
| Kenneth Walker III | R2P41 ('22) | 1,050 | 9 | 27 | 165 | 202.5 | RB14 |
| Travis Etienne | R1P25 ('22) | 1,125 | 5 | 35 | 316 | 205.1 | RB13 |
The Gibbs comp is the most apt. Similar speed, similar receiving chops, splitting with a capable complement (Montgomery = Allgeier). Gibbs's rookie year: 182 carries, 945 yards, 10 TD, 52 receptions, 316 yards = 242 PPR (RB8). Love and Allgeier could mirror this dynamic — with Love having more receiving upside than Gibbs had as a rookie.
How do highly-drafted rookie RBs actually perform?
3 out of 4 healthy 1st-round RBs since 2021 finished RB9 or better — but none on a bad offense cracked the top 5. Jeanty (RB11 on the Raiders) is the risk comp. Bijan (RB9 as a rookie, then RB3, then RB2) is the hope case. At Love's projected ADP range (RB7-11), history says roughly 70% chance of RB6-12 value and roughly 20% chance of a top-5 finish.
Read full report: Highly-Drafted Rookie RBs — Do They Beat ADP? →6.Fit Assessment
Why It Works
| Love Trait | LaFleur Scheme Need | Match |
|---|---|---|
| 4.36 speed | Shotgun runs at +0.033 EPA, 12% explosive rate | Elite |
| 63 college receptions, 0.584 rec PPA | 124 RB targets vacated, 20%+ RB target share | Elite |
| Pass protection ability | Brissett needs a back who can stay in on 3rd down | Elite |
| Home-run ability (top-5 breakaway rate) | 28th-ranked rush offense needs explosive plays | Elite |
| Draft capital (top-5 pick) | No incumbent with draft capital above round 3 | Excellent |
Why It Might Not
| Concern | Context | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| Allgeier is legit | $12.25M contract, 91.2 PFF rush grade, elite zone runner. Could eat into volume. | Moderate |
| OL quality | ARI OL is middling; Love thrived behind elite ND line. Improving with Seumalo but not elite. | Moderate |
| Patience between tackles | Outside zone requires reading cutback; Love bounces outside. Could limit zone production. | Moderate |
| Frame / durability | 214 lbs, leaner build for 250+ carry workload. Could wear down late-season. | Low-Moderate |
| LaFleur play-calling unknown | Only independent sample is 2021-22 Jets (bottom-5 offense both years). | Low-Moderate |
7.Fantasy Projection
Role Projection
Day 1 lead back. All passing downs. Primary receiving back. Allgeier handles early-down complement and goal-line work.
Per-game usage estimate: 14-16 carries, 4-5 targets (Allgeier gets 6-8 carries, goal-line).
Range of Outcomes
| Scenario | Car | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Rec | Rec Yds | Rec TD | PPR Pts | PPR Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceiling | 250 | 1,200 | 9 | 55 | 450 | 4 | ~300 | RB5-7 |
| Likely | 215 | 1,000 | 6 | 45 | 360 | 3 | ~245 | RB8-14 |
| Floor | 175 | 750 | 3 | 35 | 250 | 1 | ~175 | RB18-24 |
Redraft ADP Guidance
- Buy zone: RB12+ — if the market overreacts to the Allgeier split
- Fair price: RB7-11 — the Gibbs-with-Montgomery rookie comp lands here
- Avoid zone: RB1-5 — too much Allgeier TD vulture risk to pay for top-5 RB
Dynasty Value
Unanimous 1.01 in rookie drafts. Allgeier is 25 on a 2-year deal — by 2027, this is Love's backfield entirely. Top-5 dynasty RB asset from day one.
8.Bottom Line
The archetype-to-scheme fit is one of the strongest RB landing spots in this draft. LaFleur's Shanahan outside zone / McVay play-action system is built for a speed back who can press the edge, function as a receiver, and protect the quarterback on third down. Love checks every box. The 28th-ranked rush offense gets its most dynamic runner since David Johnson, and Arizona's league-high pass rate should keep boxes light. He walks into a lead-back role with all passing-down work from Day 1.
The governor on the outcome is the Allgeier split and the offensive line. Allgeier is a legitimate NFL starter with a 91.2 PFF rush grade and an elite outside zone profile — he is not going away. The most likely scenario is a 60/35 split favoring Love on passing downs and Allgeier on early downs and at the goal line. Love's biggest scouting weakness (bouncing outside, impatience in zone) is the one trait that matters most in an outside zone system, and it could keep the split closer to 50/50 early if he struggles to read cutback lanes at the NFL level. The OL is improving with Seumalo but remains middling overall.
The key variables: How quickly Love earns Allgeier's goal-line work (critical for TD upside). Whether LaFleur's play-calling translates from McVay's shadow. And whether Love's 214-lb frame holds up across a 17-game season with 200+ carries. If all three break right, the Gibbs comp holds and Love finishes as a top-10 RB. If one or two break wrong, RB12-18 is still in play on volume alone. The floor is high, the ceiling is elite, and the 2027 dynasty outlook is as good as any back in football.