Full Scouting & Fit Report
Ty Simpson → Los Angeles Rams
1.The Prospect
Ty Simpson | QB | Alabama | 6'1⅛", 211 lbs | Did not run 40 (proj. ~4.80)
Consensus QB2 behind Mendoza. Steelers Depot grade: 8.4 (Long-Term Starter). Draft range: late 1st (16-24) to early 2nd. Rose from a projected Round 2 pick to firmly Round 1 after a 3,567/28/5 season as Alabama's first-year starter. Comp set centers on accurate pocket passers with limited mobility.
College Production
| Season | Role | Att | Comp | Yds | TD | INT | Comp% | YPA | Rush Yds | Rush TD | PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Backup | 20 | 11 | 179 | 0 | 0 | 55.0% | 9.0 | 86 | 2 | 0.364 |
| 2024 | Backup | 25 | 14 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 56.0% | 6.7 | 44 | 1 | 0.311 |
| 2025 | Starter | 473 | 305 | 3,567 | 28 | 5 | 64.5% | 7.5 | 93 | 2 | 0.322 |
- Led the SEC in attempts (473) and completions (305). PPA of 0.322 ranked 12th of 20 qualifying QBs — good, not elite.
- Gets better as situations get harder: 3rd-down PPA of 0.449, passing-down PPA of 0.441.
- Season split problem: 21 TD / 1 INT in first 9 games → 7 TD / 4 INT in final 6. Defensive coordinators adjusted, Simpson hadn't solved it.
- Only 15 career starts — this is a one-read evaluation.
Down-specific PPA, combine, scouting details ↓
Down-Specific PPA (2025)
| Down | PPA |
|---|---|
| 1st | 0.145 |
| 2nd | 0.329 |
| 3rd | 0.449 |
| Standard downs | 0.245 |
| Passing downs | 0.441 |
The backup-year 3rd-down PPA was even more extreme (1.104 in 2023, 0.959 in 2024) — small samples, but the pattern is persistent across three seasons.
Physical Profile
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Height | 6'1⅛" |
| Weight | 211 lbs |
| Arms | 30⅞" |
| Hands | 9⅜" |
| 40-yard | Did not run (proj. ~4.80) |
Combine throwing session was excellent — only 2 bad throws (out route + rail). The size is the flag: only 6 QBs at 6'1" or shorter / sub-215 lbs have started 40+ NFL games in the last 20 years.
Scouting Summary
Strengths:
- Cleanest throwing mechanics in the class — consistent hip torque, rhythmic dropbacks
- Best pre/post-snap processor — scans field, finds 2nd/3rd reads
- 2nd-most middle-of-field completions among draft QBs; 6th-highest PFF grade on MOF throws
- Touch layering to the second level is elite
- Had under-center snaps at Alabama — more pro-ready than Mendoza mechanically
Concerns:
- Arm strength “plus” but not elite — struggles outside the numbers and on the run
- Stares down receivers on predetermined reads — veteran DBs will follow his eyes
- Ball placement erratic downfield, inconsistent hitting targets in stride
- PFF grade under pressure: 47.6 — nearly no response when pocket collapses
- PFF grade when forced to move: 53.0 (24th in class)
- Only 15 career starts — DCs adjusted and he hadn't solved it yet
2.The Destination: Los Angeles Rams
2026 Los Angeles Rams
Coaching Staff
Sean McVay
HC / Playcaller
10th season. 92-57. Youngest HC to win Super Bowl.
Nate Scheelhaase
OC
Promoted internally. Spacing & pass-game architecture.
Kliff Kingsbury
AHC
Air Raid background. "Different doesn't mean worse."
Chris Shula
DC
3rd year. Fangio-Phillips hybrid, zone-heavy.
Quarterback Room
Matthew Stafford
2025 MVP · 4,707 yds, 46 TD, 8 INT · Age 38
Ty Simpson
#13 overall · Developmental — sit-and-learn plan
Jimmy Garoppolo
0 pass attempts in 2025 · Emergency depth only
Key Weapons (Simpson Inherits)
Puka Nacua
WR1
Elite route runner. Stafford's top target.
Davante Adams
WR2
Future HOF. Intermediate route savant.
Colby Parkinson
TE1
13 personnel creates TE-vs-LB matchups.
Offensive Line
LT
A. Jackson
Starter
LG
Avila
Starter
C
Shelton
Starter
RG
Dotson
Starter
RT
McClendon
10 starts
Fewest sacks in NFL (23). 3rd in sack rate (3.4%). 4 of 5 starters return. RT is the only question. Caveat: Avila, Dotson, Shelton all FAs after 2026.
2025 offense stats, Stafford season, OL snap counts ↓
2025 Offense — Best in Football
| Metric | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA/play | +0.145 | 1st |
| Pass EPA | +0.221 | 2nd |
| Rush EPA | +0.035 | 6th |
| Success rate | 49.6% | 1st |
| Points/game | 30.5 | 1st |
| Total yards/game | 394.6 | 1st |
| Sacks allowed | 23 | 1st (fewest) |
Matthew Stafford — 2025 MVP
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards | 4,707 | 1st |
| Pass TDs | 46 | — |
| INTs | 8 | — |
| Pass EPA | 150.5 | 2nd |
| CPOE | +1.59 | — |
| Games | 20 (all starts) | — |
| Age (2026) | 38 | — |
McVay: he'd believe Stafford if he wants to play “a couple more years.” GM Snead: “not desperate” to find a successor in 2026, but open to drafting a developmental QB. Per Adam Schefter, the Rams “eyed Simpson before the McDuffie trade.”
OL Snap Counts
| Player | Pos | Starts | Snaps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaric Jackson | LT | 19 | 1,266 |
| Steve Avila | LG | 18 | 1,051 |
| Coleman Shelton | C | 20 | 1,335 |
| Kevin Dotson | RG | 17 | 1,025 |
| Warren McClendon Jr. | RT | — | 572 |
3.Scheme Fit — McVay's System
The Rams ran the NFL's most play-action-dependent offense in 2025 with the league's lowest shotgun rate (42.5%) and highest play-action rate (32.8%). McVay calls the plays — the OC transition from LaFleur to Scheelhaase is about continuity, not change. Scheelhaase's “spacing and structure” emphasis aligns with what Simpson does well.
McVay's System Identity (2025)
| Tendency | Rate | Rank | Simpson Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun rate | 42.5% | 32nd (lowest) | Under-center reps at Alabama — more pro-ready than peers |
| Play-action rate | 32.8% | 1st | Best throws are on defined-read PA mechanics |
| Motion rate | 63.5% | 4th | Pre-snap processing is Simpson's #1 trait |
| RPO rate | 0.5% | 32nd | Irrelevant — Simpson is not a runner |
| No-huddle rate | 6.7% | 18th | Neutral |
Trait-to-Scheme Mapping
| Simpson Trait | McVay Scheme Need | Match |
|---|---|---|
| Best pre/post-snap processor in class | NFL's highest motion rate (63.5%) demands rapid pre-snap reads | Elite |
| Clean under-center mechanics | NFL's lowest shotgun rate (42.5%) requires under-center comfort | Elite |
| 2nd-best MOF thrower in class | Play-action bootlegs and sail concepts attack middle of field | Elite |
| Touch layering to second level | 13 personnel creates TE-vs-LB matchups at intermediate level | Strong |
| Gets better on money downs (3rd-down PPA: 0.449) | Stafford-era passing game converts at elite rates on 3rd down | Strong |
| Stares down receivers on predetermined reads | McVay's play design creates schemed-open receivers — less reliant on off-script reads | Mitigates weakness |
| Poor under pressure (47.6 PFF grade) | OL allowed fewest sacks in NFL (23) — less pressure exposure | Mitigates weakness |
| Limited arm strength outside numbers | Play-action cuts air yards needed (8.6 avg on PA vs 9.9 standard) | Partially mitigates |
This is a rare case where a prospect's specific skill set maps to a team's specific schematic identity. Simpson's pre-snap processing and under-center mechanics are purpose-built for a play-action-heavy, motion-rich offense that operates from under center more than any other team in the NFL.
Play-action splits, under-center passing, depth-of-target, Kingsbury variable ↓
Play-Action Passing Splits
| Type | Plays | Avg Yards | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Play action | 237 | 8.4 | +0.346 |
| Standard dropback | 504 | 6.9 | +0.163 |
The Rams generated +0.346 EPA on play action — more than double standard dropback efficiency. Simpson's skill set (clean mechanics under center, anticipatory throws, MOF accuracy) is purpose-built for this.
Under Center Passing
| Formation | Pass Plays | Avg Yards | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under center | 276 | 7.6 | +0.259 |
| Shotgun | 465 | 7.2 | +0.199 |
The Rams were more efficient passing from under center than from shotgun. Simpson had a portion of snaps under center at Alabama — more pro-ready mechanically than Mendoza in that regard.
Stafford's Depth-of-Target Splits
| Depth | Attempts | Comp% | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Behind LOS | 69 | 68.1% | -0.201 |
| Short (0-9) | 369 | 74.0% | +0.196 |
| Intermediate (10-19) | 159 | 54.7% | +0.519 |
| Deep (20+) | 144 | 32.6% | +0.160 |
The intermediate tier is where this offense prints money (+0.519 EPA). That's Simpson's calling card — middle-of-field accuracy, anticipatory throws against zone at 10-19 yards. The deep ball concern (erratic downfield placement) is real, but the offense generates its highest EPA at the intermediate level, not deep.
The Kingsbury Variable
Kliff Kingsbury's Air Raid background “differs significantly” from McVay's heavy sets. McVay acknowledged the contrast but framed it as additive: “just because it's different doesn't mean that it can't be better.” If Kingsbury imports more spread concepts, Simpson would need to operate from shotgun more frequently — less ideal for his skill set but not disqualifying.
4.The Depth Chart: Stafford and Time
QB Room
| Player | Age | Contract | 2025 Stats | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 38 | Under contract | 4,707/46/8, MVP | Entrenched starter |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 34 | — | 0 attempts | Emergency depth |
There is no path to playing time in 2026. Stafford just won the MVP and McVay said he'd believe him if he wants to play “a couple more years.” The earliest realistic scenario for Simpson starting is 2027, and even that depends on Stafford's health and desire to continue.
This is the Jordan Love model — sit behind an aging Hall-of-Fame-caliber QB in a play-caller-driven system, absorb the scheme, develop physically, and inherit the keys when the starter walks away. The Rams have explicitly referenced this approach: Snead said they're “open to drafting a developmental QB.”
Draft capital signal: If the Rams take Simpson at #13, that's substantial capital — it signals legitimate succession planning, not a throwaway pick. The McDuffie trade sent the #29 pick to Kansas City, leaving #13 as their only 1st-rounder. Using it on a QB behind a 38-year-old MVP is a franchise-level statement about the future.
5.Historical Comps
Rookie Season Outcomes — Recent 1st-Round QBs
| QB | Draft | Team Quality | Rookie PPR | Started? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 2023 / #2 | Good (HOU) | 276.0 | Yes, QB8 |
| Jayden Daniels | 2024 / #2 | Good (WAS) | 355.8 | Yes, QB2 |
| Bo Nix | 2024 / #12 | Rebuilding (DEN) | 317.2 | Yes, QB5 |
| Caleb Williams | 2024 / #1 | Bad (CHI) | 254.5 | Yes, QB10 |
| Bryce Young | 2023 / #1 | Bad (CAR) | 156.4 | Yes, QB26 |
| Drake Maye | 2024 / #3 | Bad (NE) | 177.1 | Partial, then Yr 2 breakout |
| Cam Ward | 2025 / 1st | Rebuilding (TEN) | 186.7 | Yes, QB22 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 2025 / 1st | Bad (CLE) | 84.9 | Partial (8 games) |
The “Sit and Learn” Comps
- Jordan Love behind Rodgers (Green Bay): Sat 3 years, then started and signed a $220M extension.
- Patrick Mahomes behind Alex Smith (Kansas City): Sat 1 year, then became generational.
- Jalen Milroe behind Geno Smith (Seattle): 2025 3rd-rounder, sat all year — 0 pass attempts as a rookie.
The pattern: QBs who sit behind competent starters in well-run organizations tend to either emerge as legit starters (Love, Mahomes) or flame out quietly (Pickett, Willis). The difference is usually pre-draft processing ability — and processing is Simpson's #1 trait.
6.Fit Assessment
Why It Works
| Factor | Detail |
|---|---|
| Scheme alignment | Under-center mechanics + play-action processing = purpose-built for McVay's system |
| OL protection | NFL's best sack rate (3.4%) directly mitigates Simpson's worst trait (47.6 PFF under pressure) |
| Development runway | 38-year-old Stafford + McVay's coaching infrastructure = ideal sit-and-learn environment |
| Middle-of-field passing | Simpson's #2 trait maps to the Rams' highest-EPA passing depth (intermediate: +0.519 EPA) |
| Organizational stability | McVay/Snead extended through 2030+; no regime change risk |
Why It Might Not
| Concern | Context | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| Size (6'1", 211) | Only 6 QBs this size have started 40+ games in 20 years | Medium |
| Late-season regression | 21/1 TD:INT in first 9 games → 7/4 in final 6 | Medium |
| Arm strength | "Plus" but not elite; struggles outside numbers | Medium |
| Under-pressure collapse | 47.6 PFF grade under pressure — OL is elite, but pressure will find him eventually | Low |
| Kingsbury influence | Air Raid concepts may push toward more shotgun | Low |
| Stafford longevity | If Stafford plays until 40, Simpson sits 2+ years — talent development vs roster efficiency | Low |
7.Fantasy Projection
Redraft (2026)
Unrosterable. Simpson will not play a meaningful snap in 2026 barring a Stafford injury. Do not draft him in single-QB redraft formats under any circumstances.
Injury insurance value: If Stafford goes down, Simpson inherits the NFL's #1-ranked offense with Nacua, Adams, an elite OL, and McVay calling plays. That's a top-12 QB ceiling on the waiver wire — but that's a streaming scenario, not a draft-day investment.
Dynasty / Superflex
This is where Simpson's value lives. DLF consensus has him going at pick 24 overall in 1QB and pick 11 in Superflex rookie drafts.
Range of Outcomes (Dynasty)
| Scenario | What Happens | Timeline | Dynasty Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceiling | Stafford retires after 2026; Simpson starts 2027 in NFL's best offensive infrastructure. Top-15 QB. | 2027-28 | QB1 upside — the Love/Mahomes model |
| Likely | Stafford plays through 2027; Simpson starts 2028 behind a still-elite OL with Nacua in his prime. Mid-range QB2. | 2028+ | Solid QB2 — realistic scouting consensus |
| Floor | Stafford plays until 40 (2028); OL ages out (Avila/Dotson/Shelton all FA). Degraded roster or traded. | 2028-29 | Uncertain — could be a Kenny Pickett situation |
Dynasty ADP Guidance
| ADP Zone | Assessment |
|---|---|
| SF pick 8-10 | Overpay — paying for landing spot, but realistic ceiling is mid-range QB2 per scouting consensus |
| SF pick 11-14 | Fair — pricing in development timeline and elite situation |
| SF pick 15-18 | Buy — landing spot + scheme fit justify a discount to consensus |
| 1QB pick 20-24 | Fair — standard developmental QB pricing |
| 1QB pick 25+ | Steal — elite scheme fit + sitting environment at a discount |
8.The Bottom Line
This is one of the best possible landing spots for Simpson's specific skill set. The scheme alignment — under center, play action, motion, intermediate passing — is nearly perfect. Three of his five core traits (pre-snap processing, under-center mechanics, middle-of-field accuracy) map directly to what McVay's offense demands at a level no other team in the NFL can match. The development environment (sit behind an MVP, learn from a top-3 play designer) is the best available in this class.
The primary risk is that Stafford plays so well for so long that Simpson never gets his shot in LA — but that's a good problem from a team-building perspective. The secondary risk is the OL's contract cliff: Avila, Dotson, and Shelton are all free agents after 2026, meaning the line Simpson eventually inherits may look different from the one that protected Stafford at an elite level.
Key variables to monitor:
- Stafford's health and retirement timeline — 2027 or 2028?
- OL contract decisions — do Avila, Dotson, and Shelton re-sign?
- How Kingsbury's influence shifts the shotgun/under-center ratio
- Simpson's late-season regression pattern — was it a first-year-starter problem or something structural?
- Whether the Rams add an RT at #13 or use it on Simpson