Yac Football

Washington got the player it traded for in flashes and not much in between. Samuel opened 2025 hot, going for 236 yards and three touchdowns across Jayden Daniels' first three starts, then settled into a 72/727/5 line and a WR25 PPR finish once Terry McLaurin came back and the offense slid. The role was schemed touches, not route wins: 74.5% of his snaps came in the slot, he ran a league-high 43 screens, and the offense folded in 17 carries for 75 rushing yards and a score on jet sweeps and handoffs to manufacture his work near the line. The after-the-catch engine that defined him sputtered, with career lows of 10.1 yards per catch and 6.5 YAC per reception, and one broken tackle every 12 receptions after a career rate closer to one every six.

Now he is a 30-year-old free agent. His contract voided in March 2026, leaving a $12.3M dead-cap charge in Washington, and he remained unsigned into mid-June with no defined role for 2026. ESPN's late-May board fit him in Indianapolis behind Alec Pierce and Josh Downs; NFL.com's April version pointed to the Chargers, where Mike McDaniel, who coordinated his 2021 All-Pro season, could use him in reduced snaps. The recurring line is that his value hinges on joining an offense that gives him both targets and carries. His 2025 splits sharpen that: -0.256 EPA on play action versus +0.305 off it, so a screen-and-motion system resurrects the role while an under-center timing attack buries it.

QB Quality

His ideal quarterback throws on rhythm to the line of scrimmage rather than waiting on him to uncover. The 2025 sample with Daniels frames it: a 236-yard, three-TD opening three games on quick-game and schemed touches before injuries and the offense's spiral dragged the rest down. The -0.256 EPA on play action versus +0.305 off it says he wants on-schedule throws, not the layered downfield shots play action sets up. The harder truth is that no quarterback rescues a role the scheme never builds; without the manufactured volume, accuracy can't unlock a player who no longer separates on his own.

Playcall

For this player the playcaller is the whole projection. His peak was a product of Kyle Shanahan's screen-and-motion system, and both reported 2026 fits carry that DNA: McDaniel running the Chargers offense, and Shane Steichen in Indianapolis building manufactured touches on screens and fly sweeps. A coordinator who schemes him touches near the line gets the usable version; one who asks him to win routes at age 30 does not. The irony of his Washington exit is that the offense was moving the wrong way for him, with new OC David Blough pushing the unit off Kingsbury's league-high 87.9% shotgun toward a Lions-style under-center, play-action attack, the exact diet his numbers flag.

Competition

Indianapolis Colts (reported fit)

ESPN late-May fit, behind Alec Pierce and Josh Downs

LANDING-SPOT

ESPN's May 18 board placed Samuel in Indianapolis as a manufactured-touch piece, with Shane Steichen building in screens and fly sweeps. He would slot behind Pierce and Downs as a complementary schemed-touch weapon rather than a featured target.

Los Angeles Chargers (reported fit)

NFL.com April fit, McDaniel reunion in a reduced-snap role

LANDING-SPOT

NFL.com's April 29 board pointed to the Chargers, where Mike McDaniel, who coordinated Samuel's career-best 2021, could deploy him on reduced snaps alongside Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. The McDaniel screen-and-motion system is the scheme that historically maximized him.

Open market

Unsigned UFA as of mid-June 2026

DEPTH

Matthew Berry reported he was not expected back in Washington after the Commanders signed Dyami Brown and Van Jefferson Jr. Wherever he lands, the framing is a part-time, complementary role, not an alpha target.

Scheme Fit

Designed-run usage travels with him

Screen volume is league-leading

Quick game beats play action for him

Never a route-winner to fall back on

YAC engine is fading

No team, no defined role

Key Variables

Landing spot and scheme. In a screen/motion/jet-sweep system (McDaniel's Chargers, Steichen's Colts) he is a flex-relevant complementary piece; in a play-action timing offense his -0.256 PA EPA flags a poor fit and he is a bench dart at best.
Whether the YAC decline is a dip or a cliff. A career-low 6.5 YAC per reception and one broken tackle every 12 catches at age 30 is the line between a usable schemed-touch role and an expired archetype.
Availability. Fifteen career games missed, no full season ever, and an 86.6% injury probability per Draft Sharks entering his age-30 year cap the ceiling regardless of role.
Target volume after the early hot stretch. He averaged 7.6 targets per game through Week 5 and 5.2 after; whether a new offense feeds him 7-plus or treats him as a part-time gadget piece decides his weekly relevance.

Fantasy Range

Bull

Flex / WR3

Lands in a McDaniel/Steichen-style screen-and-motion system, gets 7-plus targets plus designed runs, and stays healthy: the early-2025 17.7 PPR-per-game stretch becomes a usable streaming floor with spike weeks.

Base

Late-round dart

Signs as a complementary schemed-touch piece on reduced snaps; flex-viable in stretches but matchup-dependent, in the 9-12 PPR-per-game range that defined his back-half 2025.

Bear

Waiver fodder

Wrong scheme fit or an injury-shortened season, with the YAC decline real at age 30: a droppable part-time player with little standalone value.

Health

Availability is a genuine risk on top of the role uncertainty. He has never played a full 17-game season and has missed 15 regular-season games across his career with groin, foot, hamstring, ankle, knee, calf and shoulder issues, and Draft Sharks lists his injury probability at 86.6%. The pattern held in 2025: he played 16 of 17 games but his production collapsed after the hot start as nagging injuries and the offense's decline compounded. Entering an age-30 season with that mileage, a draft cost has to price in missed time as much as a soft role.

Leave him undrafted until he signs; revisit as a late flex dart only if he lands in a McDaniel- or Steichen-style screen offense, and pass entirely if the fit is a play-action timing attack.

Deebo Samuel Sr.