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2026 Fantasy Outlook

Dylan Sampson

RB · Browns

Browns

Passing-down back

RB53

ADP (159 ovr)

77.2

Proj Half-PPR

78

Proj Carries

23 / 176

Proj Rec / Yds

Sampson came to Cleveland as a college workhorse and spent his rookie year becoming the opposite. He set Tennessee's single-season rushing record on the way to 2024 SEC Offensive Player of the Year, then averaged 2.7 yards a carry as a Brown, worst among 65 backs with 50-plus carries. The receiving side is where he fit: a target on 28% of his routes, 2nd among running backs, on a 23% snap share.

Year 2 gives him a real job. Jerome Ford signed with Washington and took about 40% of the Browns' running back targets with him, and the backfield now splits cleanly: Judkins runs early downs, Sampson works the passing game. Todd Monken built his Baltimore offense around a bellcow plus a satellite receiving back, and his RPO screen game led the league in play calls in 2023. Whether Sampson's efficiency shows up in box scores comes down to volume. The offense has to sustain drives to reach third down, and Monken has to send those checkdowns to the back instead of to Harold Fannin and David Njoku out of his two-tight-end sets.

Backfield

Quinshon Judkins

Bellcow. 230 carries, 827 yards, 7 TDs as a rookie before a Week 16 ankle injury.

WORKHORSE
Judkins owns the early-down and goal-line work, and coordinator Travis Switzer called him a foundational piece. Cleveland didn't draft a back in 2026, which locks in a clean split rather than a committee, so Sampson doesn't compete for carries. The one road to early-down volume for Sampson runs through Judkins' health: his rookie year ended on a Week 16 ankle injury, and when he sat in Week 1 Sampson caught 8 balls for 64 yards.

Raheim Sanders

RB3. 3 catches across 4 active career games.

RB3
Sanders played 59 offensive snaps in 2025 and doesn't threaten the passing-down role. He's roster insurance behind the top two.

Ahmani Marshall

Depth back, no established NFL role.

DEPTH
Marshall is depth in the room with no established NFL snaps. He enters the receiving-role picture only if injuries stack up at the top of the backfield.

Run Blocking

The 2025 line dragged down the whole backfield, Sampson included. Cleveland faced the league's highest rate of eight-plus-man boxes at 45.2% and posted minus-25.1 rushing EPA even though the backs generated positive yards over expected, because defenses could crowd the run without respecting the pass. The front office rebuilt the interior for 2026 with Zion Johnson and Elgton Jenkins inside and a Tytus Howard extension. For Sampson the block that matters is third-down pass protection, since he rarely runs behind that interior push.

Playcall

Monken runs a zone-based ground game with heavy play-action, and Switzer coordinates the run fits. The shape borrows Baltimore's setup of a bellcow paired with a change-of-pace receiving back: Derrick Henry and Justice Hill there, Judkins and Sampson here. Sampson's snaps come almost entirely on passing downs and in hurry-up, so his weekly workload rides on how often the offense reaches third down and two-minute once Judkins is healthy.

Pass Game

This is the field that decides his value, and the read is mixed. Monken's scheme works backs into the pass game through RPO screens and checkdowns, and Sampson's rookie tape backs that up, most vividly an 8-catch Week 1 with Judkins out. The ceiling sits on two things he doesn't control. The offense has to sustain drives to get to third down, and Monken has to keep that satellite volume with the back rather than send it to his tight ends in two-tight-end looks. The 66-yard screen from Shedeur Sanders is what the role looks like at its best.

Scheme Fit

Receiving usage fits the schemeTargeted on 28% of his routes, 2nd among RBs with 100-plus routes, at 1.90 yards per route run.
Can't run between the tackles2.7 yards a carry, worst of 65 qualifiers; minus-16.8 rushing EPA, 128th.
Monken's RPO screens feed satellite backsMonken led the NFL with 101 RPO calls in 2023 and ranked 5th in 2024, often screening to the backside of a read option.
Ford's exit opens the passing-down shareJerome Ford left for Washington, freeing roughly 40% of the Browns' RB targets.
Tight ends can eat his target ceilingMonken's two-tight-end looks could route satellite targets to Harold Fannin and David Njoku instead of the back.
Volume hinges on a functioning offenseAt 2025's three-and-out rates his snap share sits near 23%; the receiving role only pays if drives reach third down.

Key Variables

  • Does the offense sustain drives enough to create third-down volume? At 2025's three-and-out rates his snap share stays near 23%.
  • Do Monken's RPO and screen targets go to the backfield or to the tight ends in two-tight-end personnel?
  • Judkins' ankle: if the recovery stalls, does Sampson inherit early-down work the way he did in Week 1 (8 catches, 64 yards)?
  • Does the rebuilt interior (Johnson, Jenkins, Howard) lift the offense out of the league-worst box counts that stalled 2025 drives?

Fantasy Range

Bull

RB30 PPR

Judkins misses time or the offense hums, and Sampson clears 50 targets as an every-week passing-down back.

Base

RB48 PPR

Healthy Judkins, functional offense; Sampson lands 40-50 targets as a deep-league PPR flex.

Bear

RB65 PPR

The offense stalls again, third-down snaps dry up, and he's a 20-snap afterthought with no rushing value.

Health

Two minor injuries as a rookie in 2025, a calf issue in Week 13 that left him day-to-day and a hand injury that cost him Week 16 before he returned in Week 17. Neither needed surgery or an IR stint. At 201 pounds the open question is durability under a heavier Year 2 workload, but nothing in the rookie record points to a chronic problem.

At RB53 he's a best-ball dart worth a late pick; move him up only on an August camp signal that Judkins' ankle is limiting him into September, which turns Sampson into an RB40-range flex.

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