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2026 Fantasy Outlook

Ja'Marr Chase

WR · Bengals

Bengals

Top-3 overall

WR1

ADP (3 ovr)

256.6

Proj Half-PPR

109

Proj Rec

1,345

Proj Rec Yds

Chase is the most target-hungry receiver in the game and one of the safest high-end picks at the position. In 2025 he led the NFL with 185 targets, ran a career-high 30.4% target share, and finished WR4 in PPR at 313.6 points even though Burrow played only eight full games. Across the early Flacco starts he was the overall WR1 in catches, yards, and points. Five straight top-12 PPR finishes back the floor, and the 2024 Triple Crown line (1,708 yards, 17 TDs) shows the top of the range.

The reason he is not the runaway WR1 over the field is efficiency. His per-target production roughly halved from 2024 as his average depth of target fell to 8.4 yards and his deep catches dropped from 19 to 3, so the 2025 line leaned on short-area volume while his touchdowns fell to 8. Getting the vertical game back with a healthy Burrow is the difference between a good WR1 and the No. 1 receiver overall.

QB Quality

Burrow is the most accurate passer in league history (68.5% career, plus-4.7 CPOE in 2025) and stays accurate under pressure, so when he plays the target quality is high. He and Chase fit cleanly in the shell Burrow struggles with most: Burrow sat at the 20th percentile against Cover 2 in 2025, and that is where Chase produced best on a large sample (67th percentile). The whole projection turns on availability. Burrow missed nine games last year, and Chase's per-play value dropped from plus-0.256 EPA with Burrow to plus-0.076 in the Browning starts.

Playcall

Dan Pitcher runs the offense in year three with full staff continuity, a system built on dressed-up looks over a small set of concepts to keep things simple for Burrow. It is the most pass-heavy, lowest-play-action, highest-shotgun attack in the McVay tree (82% shotgun, dead last in play-action). Since Tyler Boyd left, Pitcher moves Chase between the slot and outside instead of locking him into one spot. His stated 2026 goal is reconnecting Chase and Burrow downfield against the two-high coverage that shrank the deep passing game.

Competition

Tee Higgins

WR2 on a $115M extension; the one teammate who caps Chase's volume.

CO-ALPHA
Higgins and Chase combined for 64% of Cincinnati's target share in 2024. In 2025 Higgins saw 6.8 targets per game to Chase's 12.6, and his health is the main governor on Chase's raw volume. When Higgins missed time, Chase's share spiked, including a 23-target Week 7 against Pittsburgh.

Andrei Iosivas

Full-time slot receiver, 9.5% target share in 2025.

WR3
Iosivas played 80% of snaps but the counting stats regressed to 33/435/2. His volume does not threaten Chase; he is a beneficiary of Higgins absences rather than a target-share rival to the WR1.

Colbie Young

Fourth-round rookie competing for the WR3 job.

ROOKIE
A 6-4 contested-catch profile Cincinnati projects as a boundary X. His path to targets runs through a Higgins absence, well behind Chase in the pecking order.

Scheme Fit

Out-route masterLeague-best 90.8 PFF grade on out routes in 2025: 23 catches, zero drops, 16 first downs, 89% run from outside alignment.
NFL target leader185 targets in 2025 on a 30.4% target share and 0.690 WOPR, both career highs, at a 90% snap rate.
Answers Burrow's Cover 2 problemChase produced at the 67th percentile vs Cover 2 while Burrow sat at the 20th percentile in the same shell.
Deep game vanished3 catches on 15-plus air yards in 2025, down from 19 in 2024; average depth of target compressed to 8.4 yards.
Efficiency halvedReceiving EPA per target fell from 0.440 in 2024 to 0.224 in 2025 on similar volume.
Cover 4 soft spot28th percentile vs Cover 4 on a 12-target sample, with Burrow at the 11th percentile there too.

Key Variables

  • Does Burrow play 17 games? His per-play value with Chase was plus-0.256 EPA and fell to plus-0.076 with Browning under center.
  • Does the deep game return? Deep catches fell from 19 to 3 in 2025, and Pitcher has named the Chase-Burrow downfield reconnection a 2026 priority.
  • How healthy is Higgins? Chase's 30.4% share partly reflects Higgins missing time; a full Higgins season pulls raw volume back toward the shared split.
  • How often does Cincinnati trail? The defense ranked 31st in yards in 2025, and Chase was plus-0.593 EPA trailing big, so a leaky defense feeds pass volume.

Fantasy Range

Bull

WR1 overall

Healthy Burrow, 30%-plus target share, deep game restored; the 2024 Triple Crown line returns.

Base

WR3

Full season near 150 catches on volume, touchdown total recovers into the low teens.

Bear

WR8

Another long Burrow absence drags per-play value and caps the ceiling at the back of the WR1 tier.

Health

Near-iron-man. He has played 78 of a possible 84 games (93%), missing extended time only in 2022 (hip and labrum). He held a 90% snap share through a career-high 185 targets in 2025 with no missed time, and injury models peg him for about one game missed in 2026.

Take him at the 1/2 turn without hesitation, and if August camp reports show Burrow hitting Chase deep, bump him back ahead of the field for the overall WR1.

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