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2026 Fantasy Outlook

Terrance Ferguson

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles Rams

TE29 ADP

TE29

ADP (127 ovr)

66.4

Proj Half-PPR

Proj Rec

334

Proj Rec Yds

Ferguson's rookie year ran backwards from his draft slot. The Rams took him 46th overall as a combine-winning athlete (4.63 forty, 39-inch vertical) who set Oregon's program record for tight-end catches, then sat him as a healthy scratch in Weeks 3 and 4 and gave him eight offensive snaps before Week 6. When he did play, the role was narrow and downfield: he led all NFL tight ends with 13 deep targets, took two of his three touchdowns on deep shots, and averaged at least 18 yards on every early-season catch, finishing 11/231/3 on 25 targets at a 40% snap rate. The thing keeping him on the bench was the thing scouts flagged before the draft, a run-blocking technique that lunges and can't anchor an edge.

The setup for 2026 is a better quarterback and a more crowded room. Matthew Stafford won 2025 MVP throwing the NFL's highest play-action rate, and McVay has turned the Rams into a 13-personnel team that ran three tight ends on roughly 40% of snaps, which is what manufactures snaps for a fourth and fifth tight end at all. But the snaps didn't open up: the Rams re-signed Tyler Higbee in March and spent the 61st pick on Ohio State receiving tight end Max Klare, leaving a five-deep group of Higbee, Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, Ferguson, and Klare. Ferguson's path to volume runs through being the best deep option, not through attrition.

QB Quality

Ferguson catches passes from the reigning 2025 AP MVP. Stafford threw for 4,707 yards, 46 TD and 8 INT at 0.252 EPA per attempt, second among qualified passers, and confirmed he returns for 2026. The fit lands where Ferguson wins: Stafford led the NFL in play-action volume (214 play-action passes, 1,786 play-action yards) and threw deep 115 times at 20-plus air yards, and Ferguson's rookie production was almost entirely a play-action and deep-shot diet (0.894 EPA on play-action targets versus negative on everything else). The schemed downfield openings matter because they don't require Ferguson to win one-on-one off the line, the part of his game scouts say is furthest behind.

Playcall

McVay calls the offense and has reshaped it around tight-end personnel: 13-personnel on roughly 40% of 2025 snaps and above 43% in late-season weeks, the league's highest play-action rate at 32.8%, and a duo-based run game on more than 40% of handoffs. That personnel mix is the only reason a fifth tight end sees the field, and it cuts both ways for Ferguson, since the same heavy sets that create his receiving snaps also ask him to block in the run game where he is weakest. McVay has said publicly that Ferguson can play any tight end or receiver role in the offense and called him 'everything and that much more than I hoped.'

Competition

Tyler Higbee

Veteran incumbent, re-signed March 2026 on a 2-year deal worth up to $8M

INCUMBENT

Higbee staying is the move that closed the easy path. Early-offseason takes assumed his departure would open snaps for Ferguson; instead the Rams kept their veteran in-line tight end, who holds the blocking role Ferguson hasn't earned and keeps the receiving snaps split.

Max Klare

Rookie receiving TE, drafted 61st overall in 2026 (43/448/2 at Ohio State in 2025)

RIVAL

Klare is the direct stylistic overlap. The Rams used a second-round pick on a pass-catching tight end one year after taking Ferguson in the same range, which signals the receiving-TE snaps are a competition, not a handoff. He threatens exactly the role Ferguson is trying to grow into.

Colby Parkinson

Veteran move/flex TE who split reps ahead of Ferguson in 2025

RIVAL

Parkinson was part of the group Ferguson sat behind as a rookie and remains in the rotation. He competes for the detached and slot snaps that overlap with Ferguson's downfield role.

Davis Allen

Depth TE rounding out a five-deep room

DEPTH

Allen is the fifth name in the group and the least likely to cut into Ferguson's targets, but his presence is part of why the room is too crowded for any single tight end to consolidate weekly volume.

Scheme Fit

Deep/play-action diet maps onto Stafford

13-personnel base manufactures his snaps

Detached move role fits his athletic profile

Run-blocking gates the every-down snaps

Duo run game leans on his weakness

Five-deep room caps target consolidation

Key Variables

Does the snap share climb out of the low 40s? He played a 40% rate as a rookie behind Higbee and Parkinson; with Higbee back and Klare added, 55-60% is the difference between flex relevance and irrelevance.
Does the run-blocking improve enough to keep him on the field on early downs, or does he stay a sub-package deep specialist?
Does the deep-target efficiency hold on a bigger sample? The 0.894 play-action EPA and 18-yard average catch came on just 25 targets.
Does McVay keep leaning into 13-personnel, or does the receiving work get split too many ways for any one tight end to matter weekly?

Fantasy Range

Bull

Low-end TE1 (spike weeks)

Wins the lead receiving-TE snaps, the deep efficiency holds, and Stafford's play-action volume turns him into a streamable TE1 in the best matchups.

Base

TE25-30 (deep-league only)

Rotational deep specialist around a 45% snap rate, too few targets to roster in most redraft formats.

Bear

Unrostered

The five-deep room never resolves, Klare takes the receiving snaps, and Ferguson stays a part-time sub-package piece.

Health

No significant injury history. Ferguson played 14 games as a rookie, and the Weeks 3-4 absences were healthy scratches tied to blocking readiness, not injuries.

Leave him off redraft boards at TE29 and revisit only if August camp reports put his snap share above 55%; the dynasty case (TE21) is the better hold while the room sorts out.

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