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2026 Fantasy Outlook

Tyler Shough

QB · Saints

Saints

QB20 ADP

QB20

ADP (99 ovr)

260.0

Proj Half-PPR

3,525 / 21 TD

Proj Pass

330 / 3 TD

Proj Rush

Shough's rookie year split cleanly along coverage lines. Against Cover-2 he posted +0.190 EPA/play (84th percentile) with +10.4 CPOE; against Cover-3, the look he faced most at 108 dropbacks, he fell to -0.170 (16th percentile). His time-to-throw stretched from 2.54s to 2.65s against three-zone rotations, and the quick hitches and curls that carved up two-high got swallowed by flat and curl defenders. He took over for Spencer Rattler mid-season after Rattler went 1-7, went 5-4, and led the NFL in third-down passer rating at 103.3 while throwing for 2,384 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT on 327 attempts. The rushing line mattered: 45 carries, 186 yards, 3 TDs, with +0.54 EPA/play in the red zone covering for poor red-zone passing (-0.18 EPA on 28 attempts).

The offense around him is being rebuilt at the two spots that capped him. Chris Olave drew 27.6% of targets and 39.4% of air yards with no second option behind him; Jordyn Tyson arrives at 8th overall to give the read tree a real WR2, and Devaughn Vele returns after grading 84.7 over Weeks 12-15 with Shough. Three of five projected offensive line starters are new to their positions, with David Edwards the priciest addition at left guard on a $61M deal. The run game finished 31st in rush EPA, which is why play-action died at 29th, and Kellen Moore's best concepts ride on play-action working. Shough closed strong: 70.6% completion, 1,172 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT over his final four games as the red-zone TD rate climbed from worst in the NFL to 75% across the last three weeks.

Weapons

Chris Olave

WR1, 27.6% target share and 39.4% of air yards in 2025

ALPHA

Carried the entire passing concentration last year. No other Saints receiver topped 293 receiving yards, so Olave absorbed bracket coverage on a near-weekly basis. A real WR2 next to him should pull a safety off his routes and open the field underneath.

Jordyn Tyson

Rookie WR2, 8th overall out of ASU with inside/outside versatility

ROOKIE-WR2

Projects as an immediate second option who can play the slot or boundary. His arrival is the most direct path to decompressing Olave's target tree and giving Shough a second receiver who beats man and zone, which would reduce how often defenses can sit in Cover-3 and dare him to throw outside the numbers.

Devaughn Vele

WR3, 6'5" slot/boundary hybrid, 84.7 PFF grade Weeks 12-15 with Shough

COMPLEMENT

Already built chemistry with Shough down the stretch, grading 84.7 over Weeks 12-15. The size gives him a contested-catch and red-zone role, and he slides to a cleaner WR3 assignment once Tyson takes the WR2 snaps.

Juwan Johnson

TE1, 77/889/3 on an 80% snap rate, 79th-percentile EPA vs Cover-3

SAFETY-VALVE

Functions as a big slot and posts a coverage profile that mirrors Shough's weakness in reverse: he dominates Cover-3 (79th percentile EPA) exactly where Shough struggles. That makes his seam and dig routes a built-in answer against the look that capped the quarterback's rookie efficiency.

Travis Etienne

Pass-catching RB, career-high 13 TDs in 2025, 95th-percentile swing-route EPA

CHECKDOWN

Signed on a 4yr/$52M deal to replace a declining Alvin Kamara as the primary backfield receiver. His 95th-percentile swing-route EPA gives Shough an efficient outlet under pressure, which matters given a 25% pressure rate and -0.70 EPA when the pocket breaks.

Protection

Only Taliese Fuaga returns in the same role from 2025, at right tackle. Kelvin Banks Jr. holds left tackle, Edwards comes from Buffalo at left guard, Erik McCoy stays at center, and Cesar Ruiz shifts from center to right guard. McCoy has missed 20 games across the last two seasons, so the interior depth is a question. The 2025 unit allowed a 6.5% sack rate (11th-worst) and Shough faced pressure on 25% of dropbacks. Pass protection trended up under him in the second half (pass EPA -0.133 to +0.038), though raw sacks rose from 17 to 24 as he held the ball longer. His -0.70 EPA under pressure is the single number the rebuilt line has to move.

Playcall

Kellen Moore calls plays off a Boise State lineage: West Coast timing, Coryell verticals, and Shanahan zone concepts, with RPO volume a constant at every stop (his 2024 Eagles led the NFL with 274 RPOs). He runs effectiveness over volume, never top-10 in any single concept rate at Dallas but top-4 in success rate on all of them at once. The offense ran 61.7% motion (7th), 78.8% shotgun (5th), and 73.9% 11-personnel before a mid-season self-scout went heavier. OC Doug Nussmeier handles QB development and has produced career-best efficiency at every stop, and QB coach Scott Tolzien turned down a Steelers OC offer to stay. Play-action sits dead until the run game wakes up.

Scheme Fit

Cover-2 is his green grass

Cover-3 reads stall against his most-faced look

Third-down efficiency carried the offense

Extended plays are a strength, pressure is not

Play-action hostage to a dead run game

Rushing floor the Foles comp misses

Key Variables

Cover-3 development: 108 dropbacks at 16th-percentile EPA against his most-faced coverage. Does a full offseason with Moore and Nussmeier scheme more slants, deep outs, and Juwan Johnson seams to close the processing gap?
Offensive line cohesion: three of five starters new to their positions, Edwards the highest-leverage add at left guard. Run-game improvement is the prerequisite for play-action credibility.
Jordyn Tyson's impact: can a real WR2 decompress a target tree where Olave drew 27.6% of targets and Shough faced bracket coverage with no credible second option?
Pressure rate: -0.70 EPA under pressure on a 25% pressure rate. If the line cuts that toward 20%, his +0.20 clean-pocket EPA has room to climb.

Fantasy Range

Bull

QB8

Rebuilt line revives play-action, Tyson decompresses the reads, and Cover-2 dominance becomes the baseline. The young-Cousins floor-plus-scheme outcome.

Base

QB13

3,525 / 21 TD passing plus 330 / 3 TD rushing for 260 half-PPR points; rushing floor and third-down efficiency carry, Cover-3 still caps the ceiling.

Bear

QB18

Run-game fix stalls, play-action stays dead at 29th, and he throws into Cover-3 at 16th-percentile efficiency for another year.

Health

His first fully healthy season came at age 24 at Louisville in 2024, after three straight season-ending injuries at Texas Tech: a broken left collarbone in 2021, a re-broken collarbone in 2022 that cost six games, and a broken left fibula in 2023 that required surgery. Those three years left him with 15 total games. He then played all 11 of his rookie NFL appearances without missing time to injury, which starts to put distance between the player and the college durability label, even if a wildcard remains.

He's a streamer-plus at QB20, but if August reporting shows the rebuilt line generating real run-game push in camp, move him up two rounds before the market catches the play-action unlock.

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